headcount freeze at 3 months post-acquisition is a red flag. usually means they're evaluating team overlap before deciding what to cut

the month 9-12 window is accurate. first few months are always 'business as usual' messaging, then the org changes hit

did they consolidate any benefits yet? usually that's where you feel it first - healthcare plan changes, 401k matching differences

I left Confluent in January before the IBM deal closed. timing was unintentionally good I guess